Russia seeks to become an important player in conflict resolution in Afghanistan, where the interests of various regional and global powers, including the United States, come together. While the West remains highly suspicious of Russia – especially since the revelation of Moscow’s alleged attempt to influence the 2020 US presidential elections and the Alexei Navalny poisoning – in Afghanistan today Moscow and Washington have a very similar, though not the same, agenda. One reason for this hinges on the transit of gas from Turkmenistan to South Asia. And it is this, indeed, that offers a sign at how any eventual peace in Afghanistan revolves around greater Russia-US cooperation rather than increased enmity.
A summit held in the Russian capital on March 18 is one of a number of diplomatic initiatives intended to jumpstart the stalled Afghan peace process. Even though Russia recalled its ambassador from Washington after Joe Biden said Vladimir Putin would “pay a price” for the alleged election interference and agreed with an interviewer that he was “a killer,” the American special representative, Zalmay Khalilzad, nevertheless went to Moscow to participate in the summit. Besides him, Russia also hosted envoys from China, Pakistan and Qatar, as well as various Afghan parties. Although the Taliban is banned by Russia, its leaders also attended the talks.
It is not the first time the Kremlin had negotiated with the Taliban. The Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979 and remained mired there for a decade. As many as 15,000 Soviet soldiers were killed in a conflict with US-backed Islamist guerrillas. The invasion, which aimed to prop up an allied communist government, ravaged the country, killing an estimated one million Afghans and destroying the country’s infrastructure. But after the Taliban finally took control in 1996, Russia established contacts with its leadership.
Ever since, the Kremlin has taken a pragmatic position vis-à-vis the Taliban. Moscow never rejected talks with the Taliban, acknowledging that the Islamist group cannot be excluded from the reality of today’s Afghanistan. In 2019, a Taliban delegation held talks with Russian officials in Moscow after the US negotiations with the Afghan group collapsed.
From Russia’s perspective, the current Kabul government is too dependent on the US, which is why the Kremlin aims to strengthen its ties with its major rival – the Taliban – while at the same time trying to maintain good relations with the central government. In other words, the Russians are keeping a balance between the two major factions, although there are indications that it is trying to convince Kabul there is no option other than to reach an agreement with the Taliban on the configuration and balance of power in a “post-American Afghanistan.”
The Taliban already rules large parts of Afghanistan and has vowed to support and protect the construction of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-
The Biden team faces a May 1 deadline to withdraw the remaining 2,500 US soldiers from Afghanistan under a February 2020 deal reached between the Trump administration and the Taliban. At this point, however, it is not clear if Washington will try to formally postpone the withdrawal. One major problem for the US is that it is unlikely to be able to preserve a friendly regime in Kabul if it leaves Afghanistan. However, if the Americans do not withdraw, the country could easily sink into another full-scale war.
Russia, on the other hand, fears that the US might attempt to maintain a permanent base in Afghanistan, from which it could encircle Iran and protect American interests in Central Asia’s mineral resources. Moscow is also worried about increased terrorism activity in Afghanistan’s northern provinces, close to the borders of former Soviet republics such as Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Indeed, neutralizing potential threats from terrorist groups from the south has been Moscow’s main interest for a long time. Some Western analysts, however, argue that Moscow is using this threat to increase its military presence in Central Asia, while remaining silent about America’s similar intentions.
Both, in fact, have parallel goals in Afghanistan. In fact, as declared by both the US and Russia, they are the same: to prevent extremist groups from turning the country into a safe haven for world terrorism after the withdrawal of American troops.
The Russian-backed conference is one of a number of diplomatic initiatives aimed at reviving the peace process. Turkey recently announced plans to host another round of Afghan peace talks in Istanbul in April. The venue aside, the success or even limited effect of such talks will revolve around Russian powers of persuasion and enticement. Still, it is highly improbable that Russia alone will be able to ensure a permanent peace in Afghanistan and nor can the US. The truth is, there is no single, viable guarantor of peace in the Afghan context.
Thus, the future of the war-torn country will probably depend on wider geopolitical deals between Moscow and Washington. And that means, perhaps, setting the Afghan process apart from the dispute over the US elections and Navalny. The question is whether a new US administration that wants to show it is as tough as Trump was on America’s traditional adversaries – China included – is willing and able to do so.
Nikola Mikovic is a political analyst in Serbia. His work focuses mostly on the foreign policies of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, with special attention on energy and “pipeline politics.”
