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Neil Hauer

Neil Hauer is a security analyst based in Tbilisi, Georgia. His work focuses on the Syrian conflict, particularly Russia’s role; politics and minorities in the South Caucasus; and violence and politics in the North Caucasus, particularly Chechnya and Ingushetia, where he conducts regular fieldwork. He previously served as senior intelligence analyst at The SecDev Group in Ottawa, Canada. He has consulted for the European Union and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) on radicalization and security.

Articles By Neil Hauer

Russia’s Breaking Point in Ukraine May Be Closer Than We Think By Neil Hauer - May 11, 2022

Kyiv, Ukraine – To say that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has not gone according to plan is hardly a novelty at this point. Two and a half months after Russian forces launched a full-scale assault on their southwestern neighbor, they have little to show for it. A six-week campaign to capture the capital Kyiv was abandoned in early April, with … Continue reading “Russia’s Breaking Point in Ukraine May Be Closer Than We Think”

The Two Wars Taking Place in Ukraine By Neil Hauer - Mar 19, 2022

Odessa, Ukraine – Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been ongoing for a full three weeks now. That is already a military success in itself for Ukraine: Many analysts (and the Kremlin itself) expected that lightning Russian operations could score a victory within days. Ukraine’s dogged resistance, however, has changed the narrative. The war has been costly for Moscow with more than 1,300 … Continue reading “The Two Wars Taking Place in Ukraine”

Ukraine War Enters Dangerous New Phase of Urban Combat By Neil Hauer - Mar 4, 2022

Khmelnitsky, Ukraine – Ukraine’s defense against Russian invasion has already become a heroic tale, filled with stories of staunch locals defending their homeland against all odds. But as the fight now moves to Ukraine’s cities, what comes next will be a much darker hour. The first four days of the conflict provided plenty of ammunition for Ukrainian hopes of … Continue reading “Ukraine War Enters Dangerous New Phase of Urban Combat”

Russian Invasion of Ukraine Now a Foregone Conclusion By Neil Hauer - Feb 26, 2022

The hope against hope over the past month has been that Russia and its  president, Vladimir Putin, would back down from maximalist goals over Ukraine despite the mounting evidence to the contrary. As three-quarters of Russia’s entire military strength piled onto the borders of its southwest neighbor, it still seemed too much to think that Moscow would … Continue reading “Russian Invasion of Ukraine Now a Foregone Conclusion”

Russia’s Military Remains Poised to Attack Ukraine From Three Sides By Neil Hauer - Feb 19, 2022

If you’ve turned on the TV over the last month, you’re probably aware that Russia has conducted a massive military buildup on the borders of its neighbor, Ukraine. Thousands of Russian tanks, artillery and other military vehicles have been shipped from as far away as the Pacific to staging grounds in southwest Russia and Belarus. By some accounts, 70 percent … Continue reading “Russia’s Military Remains Poised to Attack Ukraine From Three Sides”