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Neil Hauer

Neil Hauer is a security analyst based in Tbilisi, Georgia. His work focuses on the Syrian conflict, particularly Russia’s role; politics and minorities in the South Caucasus; and violence and politics in the North Caucasus, particularly Chechnya and Ingushetia, where he conducts regular fieldwork. He previously served as senior intelligence analyst at The SecDev Group in Ottawa, Canada. He has consulted for the European Union and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) on radicalization and security.

Articles By Neil Hauer

Russia Can’t Save Syria’s Failing Economy – Nor Is it Interested By Neil Hauer - Jul 20, 2021

What remains of Syria’s civil war has largely been driven to the sidelines of international attention. The broad military offensives of years past have given way to stagnated frontlines and a slow decay that rarely makes headlines. But for the people of Syria, the hardships are not over. For those remaining in areas under Bashar … Continue reading “Russia Can’t Save Syria’s Failing Economy – Nor Is it Interested”

Iran and the Caucasus: Tehran Powerless in Its Former Domain By Neil Hauer - Jun 3, 2021

The Caucasus is famously a region bounded by three former empires: Russia, Turkey and Iran. But while Moscow and to a lesser degree Ankara hold significant sway in the region, Tehran has been relegated to little more than a spectator. Despite its often-dominant position over its neighbors to the west in the Arab world, Iran’s … Continue reading “Iran and the Caucasus: Tehran Powerless in Its Former Domain”

Turkey’s Genocide Denial Campaign Has Failed – But Don’t Expect Change By Neil Hauer - May 6, 2021

On April 24, the once-unthinkable happened. Marking the 106th anniversary of the Armenian genocide, US President Joe Biden issued a statement that explicitly used the word “genocide” twice. The statement marked a reversal of decades-long American policy to avoid officially recognizing the Armenian genocide in order not to antagonize Turkey, long a valuable Cold War … Continue reading “Turkey’s Genocide Denial Campaign Has Failed – But Don’t Expect Change”

Turkey’s Diplomatic Struggles in the Caucasus By Neil Hauer - Mar 11, 2021

Much was made of Turkey’s return last year to one of its old stomping grounds: the Caucasus. Almost six months on, however, little of substance has materialized in Ankara’s diplomatic and military initiatives in the region. For centuries, Turkey, in its previous incarnation as the Ottoman empire, controlled the western portion of the South Caucasus, … Continue reading “Turkey’s Diplomatic Struggles in the Caucasus”

Analysis: Turkish and Israeli Military Tech in the Nagorno-Karabakh War By Neil Hauer - Jan 14, 2021

One thing that wars offer third parties is the opportunity to evaluate weapons employed in real conflicts, as opposed to simulated exhibitions. This is important for tactical as well as procurement reasons. In this regard, the recent war over the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan was notable for three things: the absence of … Continue reading “Analysis: Turkish and Israeli Military Tech in the Nagorno-Karabakh War”