Ever since Russia, infuriated by the loss of a surveillance plane in Syria and the deaths of the 15 people on board, pledged to deliver an advance air defense system to Syria, there have been frantic diplomatic moves behind the scenes to stop Moscow doing so. Little of this spilled over into public, apart from a brief comment from America’s National Security Advisor John Bolton at the United Nations in late September that the supply of the missile system would be “a significant escalation.”
For more than a week, Israel, which Russia blamed for the downing of its plane, was particularly worried, and considered sending its prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to Russia to plead for the pledge not to be fulfilled. It certainly seemed, given how serious a threat the US considered the move, that Russia might dangle the threat but pull back at the last minute. And then, last week, it happened. Russia’s defense ministry released video footage of the S-300 being unloaded in Syria. Russia had changed the military terrain of the region, and suddenly. It isn’t immediately obvious, but something has shifted in the skies over the Middle East.
To understand why the delivery of the S-300 is such a major shift, and the United States was so against it, it helps to understand some of the military mechanics of the Middle East over the past half century.
For the first few years of its existence, Israel’s ability to act militarily was circumscribed by Egypt’s bigger and better-equipped army. That changed after 1956, when Gamal Abdel Nasser nationalized the Suez Canal. When a brief invasion by France, the United Kingdom and Israel failed to stop it, France, infuriated by Nasser, began supplying Israel with advanced Mirage fighter jets. It was chiefly these planes, supplied throughout the 1960s, that allowed Israel to overcome Egyptian defenses in the 1967 war.
Since then, Israel has made it a core part of its military strategy to maintain air superiority across the region, first buying European jets and later illegally acquiring the blueprints to the French Mirages and copying them, and then being supplied with American jets.
This battle for air superiority has continued for 40 years, with surface-to-air missiles, like the Russian S-300, forming the bulk of the investment that Egypt and Syria have put into their air defenses. In the 1973 October War, Egypt’s air defenses destroyed almost half of Israel’s total number of fighter jets, convincing Cairo’s military planners to shift their energies there.
Which brings us to the delivery of the S-300. For years, Israel and the US have tried to stop Russia from delivering the S-300 to any of its allies in the region. A delivery to Iran took nine years to happen. Russia has been promising to give the system to Syria for four years. The reason the Israelis are so threatened by it is because it would limit the ability of Israel’s air force to carry out raids on Syrian, and even Lebanese, territory. Syria’s air defenses have already shot down two Israeli jets this year; the S-300 will make that much more likely.
Given how seriously Israel takes the building of Iranian bases inside Syria and the arming of Hezbollah in Lebanon, even the presence of the S-300 won’t stop the air force conducting raids. Israeli military sources have said as much already. But it makes it more “expensive,” militarily and politically. The shift won’t be immediately obvious. But Israeli jets will have to alter their flight paths and Israel may seek to use unmanned drones for some missions. Like most military shifts, it won’t be easy to spot, but Tel Aviv’s task of holding off Iran has been made a lot harder.
The real change, however, will be political, and a change that will extend far beyond Syria. The presence of the S-300 will make it easier for Iran to transport weapons across Syrian territory to Lebanon. It will mean the Revolutionary Guards operating inside Syria will feel more secure in their bases. It will draw all three countries – Iran, Syria and Lebanon – closer, as Damascus could also extend the S-300 shield to Lebanon.
But it also means that Russia will become more entrenched across the Middle East. The Cold War rivalry between the US and the Soviet Union had a profound effect on the Middle East, with each party favoring certain countries in the region. That rivalry, which faded for two decades after the Soviet Union collapsed, has returned, and the delivery of the S-300 signals that Russia intends to remain in the region and explicitly take sides.
That, at a moment when the United States is retreating from the region, will be noted by other regional countries, who may start to wonder if they should not at least be friendly with Moscow. Expect more diplomatic flights to Moscow. The Russian gift has not only changed the landscape of the Middle East; it has planted Russia’s feet firmly beneath it.
Faisal Al Yafai is currently writing a book on the Middle East and is a frequent commentator on international TV news networks. He has worked for news outlets such as The Guardian and the BBC, and reported on the Middle East, Eastern Europe, Asia and Africa.
AFP PHOTO/KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV
