The Sochi Winter Olympics in February of 2014 were meant to be as much a celebration of Vladimir Putin’s Russia as they were of sporting prowess. Putin had returned to the presidency two years earlier and Sochi was meant to show the world a new Russia. Yet by the end of the following month, the new Russia looked very much like the old Soviet Union. A crisis in Ukraine escalated to such an extent that the Ukrainian president had been toppled by the end of the event. Within a month, Russia had annexed Crimea. The response from the international community was swift: Russia was expelled from the G8 and faced severe sanctions. A major sporting event had been overshadowed by a major political event.
Four years later and history is repeating itself. Once again, a major sporting event in Russia is being overshadowed by a major political event, this time the poisoning of a former Russian spy and his daughter in a sleepy English town and the extraordinary coordinated response from almost the entire Western world. Twenty-three countries, including almost every one in European Union, expelled over 100 Russian diplomats they accused of being spies. The US expelled the majority, 60, but it was the collective expulsion of so many from European countries that will most hurt Russia. Other sanctions are still being contemplated, including a reduction in the number of government officials present at the World Cup in Russia this summer – a similar sanction to that used during the Winter Olympics.
But history will repeat itself in other ways. Because, just as happened in 2014, the coordinated response will push Russia closer to the post-Soviet countries – and this time, deep into the Middle East as well.
After the annexation of Crimea and subsequent sanctions, international politics moved on. It was little noticed that Putin had turned his attention to the collection of ex-Soviet states which surround Russia, seeking to draw them into a new “Eurasian Economic Union.” Within a year, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Armenia had joined, with Kyrgyzstan following after.
A similar move will now take place, with greater consequences for the Middle East. Having been so comprehensively isolated by the West, Putin will shift his focus to countries such as Iran, Turkey and Syria, states that have a good relationship with Moscow, and ones where close relationships will allow Russia to rival the United States in the Middle East.
To understand Russia’s isolation and its options, it is necessary to consult a map. The mass expulsions affected almost every country along Russia’s western border with Europe: from Finland, through the Baltic states, Ukraine and even into the Balkan countries of Macedonia and Albania. As a show of solidarity, it could scarcely have been more powerful. Once again, Russia is being isolated.
But there is another view of the map, which shows a different reality. Turkey, despite being a member of Nato, did not expel diplomats. On the other side of Russia are the Central Asian countries, Kazakhstan primarily, but four others as well, all ex-Soviet countries. Across the Caspian Sea is Iran, and beyond it Afghanistan and Pakistan. It is to these countries that Russia will now pivot. Crucially, every single one of those countries is Muslim.
It is here that Russia will seek alliances. The Middle East will be a particular priority because of its use as a method of asserting global power. Russia’s relationship with Turkey, Iran and Syria has already taken it deep into the Middle East. By defending Bashar Al Assad, Russia has created influence in the Geneva process, bringing it back to the top negotiating table with the US.
With fighter jets in the air above Syria, it has begun instructing America’s main ally Israel where its own planes can fly. With its troops along the border, Turkey must run its foreign policy by Moscow. Already close to Tehran, if the nuclear deal falls apart – as the mood music from Washington suggests it might – Russia will only draw Iran closer. Piece by piece, Russia has inserted itself into the world’s most strategic region. Now, it will not give up those alliances.
Nor will those alliances be the end. In the months after the Crimea annexation in 2014, Russia’s defense minister made a visit to Islamabad – the first by a Russian defense chief in nearly half a century. By the end of the year, an agreement on defense cooperation was signed. As relations between Russia and the West, and Pakistan and the United States falter, those ties will be dusted off again.
And that is without factoring in Central Asia, which Russia still considers its own backyard. Relations with Central Asia’s countries are an important bridgehead to China. That country’s enormous “One Belt, One Road” infrastructure project will involve at least three Central Asian countries, possibly creating competition but also cooperation.
All of which will have a rather unexpected result: Russia will become one of the most important power brokers in the Muslim world. Russia’s relationship with Islam has often been viewed through a security lens. There are perhaps 20 million Muslims in Russia, the second-largest faith group. Faith has provided a focus for nationalist movements in Russia’s restive southern provinces and in Central Asia. But if relations warm with the Muslim countries surrounding Russia, Moscow may find it more strategic to show off its Muslim credentials and use faith as soft power.
The poisoning in Salisbury has shown that Russia cannot easily give up its Cold War mindset – and the coordinated response has shown that its western neighbors will still stand together against Moscow, tilting the country towards its eastern and southern neighbors. A poisoned relationship with Europe will drag Russia closer to the Muslim world.
Faisal Al Yafai is currently writing a book on the Middle East and is a frequent commentator on international TV news networks. He has worked for news outlets such as The Guardian and the BBC, and reported on the Middle East, Eastern Europe, Asia and Africa.
AFP PHOTO/Don Emmert
